独家解读丨「余粮」只剩 7 亿，Meta 为何成了最失意的 AI 巨头？

TL;DR - Meta's Q2 earnings show AI capex ballooning to a projected $135–145B for 2026 while free cash flow collapsed to $784M, triggering an 11% after-hours stock drop and hard questions about how it monetizes AI without a cloud business. It matters as a bellwether for the industry's shift from capability races to ROI accountability.

• Financials: single-quarter capex of $31.08B (+83% YoY), free cash flow down 91% to $784M, net profit −14%, operating profit −8%; Reality Labs has accumulated over $80B in losses since 2020.
• Model position eroded: Llama 4's rushed April 2025 launch and benchmark-gaming controversy ended Meta's open-source lead; Behemoth shelved, closed-source Muse Spark API repeatedly delayed, while Qwen/DeepSeek/GLM/Kimi/MiniMax dominate Hugging Face and OpenRouter rankings.
• Cost discipline and pivot: internal OpenRouter-style model router for task downgrading, per-employee token budgets, and a new cloud unit to rent out idle capacity — Meta ranks #2 globally in H100-equivalent datacenter compute (11 of Epoch AI's top 60) with ~65% internal utilization.
• Org churn: $14.3B Scale AI stake and Alexandr Wang as CAIO, four AI reorgs in six months, ~8,000 layoffs in May 2026, and departures including Tian Yuandong and Yann LeCun.