赌注十万亿：字节拒绝走蒸馏捷径背后，张一鸣的长期主义有多狠？

TL;DR - Reporting (via The Information/FT) that ByteDance founder Zhang Yiming has repeatedly vetoed distilling rival frontier models to close the gap, betting instead on from-scratch training and a rumored 10-trillion-parameter model, despite Seed 2.1 Pro ranking only ~21st while Chinese rivals occupy nearly half the global top 10.

• Three internal pushes to distill (after DeepSeek-R1, after rivals got Blackwell chips, after Kimi K3's ranking success) were rejected; ByteDance enforces a distillation ban via API detection, with GPT-generated data barred from training sets since April 2023.
• Technical rationale cited: model collapse from synthetic data (Nature 2024 study; ICLR 2025 Meta work claiming even 0.1% synthetic data can trigger it), loss of long-tail distribution coverage, and inheriting another model's tokenizer/vocabulary — which the article argues is disqualifying for native multimodal work like Seedance 2.0's audio-video-text atomic alignment.
• Distillation also transfers another lab's reward-model preferences; ByteDance wants RLHF aligned to its own business metrics (Douyin completion/interaction rates, e-commerce conversion).
• Cost of the bet: restricted to H20 chips under export controls, so it compensates with cluster scale and MTBF/fault-tolerance engineering across multiple new data centers; 2026 AI capex raised above ¥200B with a sharp profit decline. Distillation IP disputes (Anthropic's accusations, US legislation) add a compliance-hedging angle.