Auto Research又进化了：贝叶斯联手大模型，AI自己设计关键实验

TL;DR - Model Discovery Agent combines LLM-generated hypotheses with Bayesian inference and value-of-information experiment design to identify mechanisms using fewer experiments. It extends autonomous research agents from executing experiments to selecting the most informative ones.

• LLMs propose candidate mechanisms, while Bayesian evidence ranks them and updates uncertainty as results arrive.
• The agent uses predictive disagreement and CMA-ES to select experiments that best distinguish competing hypotheses, expanding the candidate pool when none fit.
• On FORCEBENCH, MDA achieved about 93% numerical pass rate after eight experiments versus roughly 31% for a pure LLM agent.
• Tests on chemical kinetics and neuron models show that low prediction error does not guarantee recovery of the true mechanism, making targeted interventions critical.