Geomagnetic storms caused by solar wind might be more extreme than previously thought
Merged summary
TL;DR - Measurement uncertainty might create the illusion that geomagnetic-storm severity plateaus as solar-wind strength rises. Correcting this statistical bias could imply more extreme storms than previously estimated.
- Solar-wind measurement errors can cause true values to regress toward the mean.
- This bias can produce an apparent upper limit on geomagnetic-storm severity.
- Risk models based on that presumed limit might underestimate extreme space-weather events.
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Geomagnetic storms caused by solar wind might be more extreme than previously thought
TL;DR - Measurement uncertainty might create the illusion that geomagnetic-storm severity plateaus as solar-wind strength rises. Correcting this statistical bias could imply more extreme storms than previously estimated.
- Solar-wind measurement errors can cause true values to regress toward the mean.
- This bias can produce an apparent upper limit on geomagnetic-storm severity.
- Risk models based on that presumed limit might underestimate extreme space-weather events.