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Decoding Market Emotion from Blockchain Activity: A Data-Driven Sentiment Classifier

Research Crypto Sentiment ML

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TL;DR - A study that classifies Bitcoin market sentiment by fusing on-chain blockchain data, historical price data, and daily Twitter sentiment, showing that combining these signals yields meaningful, interpretable market insights rather than price predictions.

  • Merges on-chain transaction metrics, Bitcoin price history, and daily Twitter sentiment classifications into a normalized dataset for sentiment analysis.
  • Tested multiple ML models with cross-validation; Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) performed best, achieving an average F1-score of ~0.84.
  • Used SHAP (game-theory-based interpretability) to quantify how on-chain features contribute to predictions, improving transparency.
  • Framed as explanatory (understanding sentiment) rather than predictive (forecasting prices), with deep learning flagged as future work.

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Decoding Market Emotion from Blockchain Activity: A Data-Driven Sentiment Classifier

arXiv cs.LG Arthur G. Bubolz, Abreu Quevedo, Giancarlo Lucca, Rafael A. Berri, Eduardo Borges, Bruno L. Dalmazo 2026-07-16 arXiv:2607.15258
Public signals N/A
Providers: Hugging Face · N/A OpenAlex · N/A Publisher · N/A Semantic Scholar · N/A X · N/A Fetched 2026-08-15 14:33:53.395088 UTC

TL;DR - A study that classifies Bitcoin market sentiment by fusing on-chain blockchain data, historical price data, and daily Twitter sentiment, showing that combining these signals yields meaningful, interpretable market insights rather than price predictions.

  • Merges on-chain transaction metrics, Bitcoin price history, and daily Twitter sentiment classifications into a normalized dataset for sentiment analysis.
  • Tested multiple ML models with cross-validation; Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) performed best, achieving an average F1-score of ~0.84.
  • Used SHAP (game-theory-based interpretability) to quantify how on-chain features contribute to predictions, improving transparency.
  • Framed as explanatory (understanding sentiment) rather than predictive (forecasting prices), with deep learning flagged as future work.
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