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Conformal Policy Learning with Distribution-Free Safety Guarantees

Research Safe Policy Learning

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Merged summary

TL;DR - Conformal policy learning uses hypothesis tests of counterfactual harm to decide who receives treatment, providing distribution-free safety guarantees in high-stakes settings. It aims to improve welfare while explicitly limiting the probability of treating individuals who would be worse off than under control.

  • Treatment is assigned by thresholding conformal p-values built from observable proxies and selective calibration.
  • For randomized experiments, CPL offers finite-sample safety at a user-specified level under exchangeability, without outcome-model assumptions.
  • With consistent outcome estimation, CPL is asymptotically welfare-optimal subject to the safety constraint.
  • For observational studies, learn-then-balance weighting yields doubly robust safety guarantees.

Sources (1)

Conformal Policy Learning with Distribution-Free Safety Guarantees

arXiv stat.ME Ying Jin, Naoki Egami 2026-09-15 arXiv:2609.17296
Public signals Semantic Scholar citations 0 · Semantic Scholar influential citations 0
Providers: Hugging Face · N/A OpenAlex · N/A Publisher · N/A Semantic Scholar · Citations 0 · Influential citations 0 X · N/A Fetched 2026-09-23 14:15:51.686680 UTC

TL;DR - Conformal policy learning uses hypothesis tests of counterfactual harm to decide who receives treatment, providing distribution-free safety guarantees in high-stakes settings. It aims to improve welfare while explicitly limiting the probability of treating individuals who would be worse off than under control.

  • Treatment is assigned by thresholding conformal p-values built from observable proxies and selective calibration.
  • For randomized experiments, CPL offers finite-sample safety at a user-specified level under exchangeability, without outcome-model assumptions.
  • With consistent outcome estimation, CPL is asymptotically welfare-optimal subject to the safety constraint.
  • For observational studies, learn-then-balance weighting yields doubly robust safety guarantees.
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